Overview
John W. Keating is an economist at Washington University in St. Louis (visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis at the time of his 1992 paper). Known for pedagogical contributions to structural VAR methodology and for showing that contemporaneous zero restrictions are invalid under rational expectations.
Key Contributions / Features
- Keating (1992) — "Structural Approaches to Vector Autoregressions": pedagogical derivation of the VAR as a reduced form of a simultaneous-equations model; explicit counting argument for identification; empirical comparison of contemporaneous vs. long-run restrictions.
- Keating (1990) — "Identifying VAR Models under Rational Expectations" (Journal of Monetary Economics): showed that contemporaneous zero restrictions are generally invalid when agents have rational expectations, because any observable variable can convey information about future events; derived alternative identification restrictions consistent with rational expectations.
- Keating and Nye (1991) — "Permanent and Transitory Shocks in Real Output": estimated long-run structural VARs for 19th-century and postwar economies.
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