Overview
Malin Adolfson is an economist at Sveriges Riksbank. Her research focuses on Bayesian econometric models — particularly Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models — applied to open economy monetary policy analysis and central bank forecasting.
Key Contributions
- Adolfson et al. (2005): Demonstrated that BVAR and open-economy DSGE models match or beat Riksbank official inflation forecasts at most horizons; introduced Bayesian forecast combination (Winkler 1981) into central bank practice; identified the limits of BVAR for policy conditioning via impulse responses. See Forecast Combination and Historical Decomposition.
- Adolfson et al. (2005b/2008): Estimated a small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model for Sweden with incomplete exchange rate pass-through, extending Christiano-Eichenbaum-Evans (2005) and including a modified Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) condition to improve exchange rate dynamics.
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