Overview
Gabriel Perez-Quiros is a macroeconomist who worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Bank of Spain (and later the European Central Bank), specializing in business-cycle dynamics, regime-switching models, and real-time forecasting. He is best known, with Margaret McConnell, for documenting the Great Moderation in U.S. output volatility.
Key Contributions / Features
- Great Moderation documentation — McConnell–Perez-Quiros (2000): With Margaret McConnell, established the 1984Q1 break in U.S. GDP-growth volatility, showed it is a variance (not mean) break dominated by durable-goods production, tested it with Andrews–Ploberger unknown-break-date methods, and linked it to inventory management. See McConnell-Perez-Quiros (2000) and Great Moderation.
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