Overview
Terry Quinn is an economist at the Central Bank of Ireland (Research Department). He co-authored Kenny-Meyler-Quinn (1998), which assessed Bayesian VAR models for forecasting Irish HICP inflation on the eve of Irish EMU membership. The paper's rolling recursive evaluation over T=24 one-step forecasts (1992Q1–1998Q1) showed BVAR specifications substantially outperforming both univariate benchmarks and unrestricted OLS VARs, with the parsimonious small-open-economy specification winning overall.
Key Contributions / Features
- Forecast evaluation design. Structured the rolling recursive evaluation protocol: initial estimation window 1979Q1–1992Q1, extended quarterly to 1998Q1, generating T=24 one-step forecasts for Theil U and RMSE computation.
- Cecchetti indicator screening. Contributed to the pre-screening framework establishing the dominance of external price variables and the irrelevance of M3 for Irish inflation prediction.
- Policy communication. Framed the 95% confidence interval result (≈±1.6% per quarter for the best model) as a caution for policy use.
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