Andrew Gelman

Overview

Andrew Gelman is Professor of Statistics and Political Science at Columbia University. He is one of the most influential statisticians of his generation, known for Bayesian data analysis, multilevel modeling, and applied statistical criticism. In the mortality literature he is known for identifying age-aggregation bias in the Case and Deaton (2015) deaths of despair paper.

Key Contributions

• Age-Aggregation Bias (Gelman and Auerbach 2016a): Demonstrated that Case and Deaton's unadjusted mortality figure for white non-Hispanic 45–54 year-olds is partially an artifact of the baby boom's passage through the age band; after within-band age adjustment, the post-2005 "steady increase" disappears and the trend is sex-asymmetric (genuine for women, reversed for men).
• Bayesian Data Analysis (with Carlin, Stern, Dunson, Vehtari, Rubin) — the standard graduate textbook on Bayesian methods.
• Multilevel modeling (regression and post-stratification, MrP) for small-area estimation in political science.

Related

• Jonathan Auerbach
• Deaths of Despair
• Period Mortality
• Anne Case
• Angus Deaton

Sources

• Gelman and Auerbach 2016a — Age-Aggregation Bias in Mortality Trends
• Case and Deaton 2017 — Mortality and Morbidity in the 21st Century