Overview
Claudia Pedroza is a statistician affiliated with the Department of Statistics at Harvard University. In the context of this wiki she is relevant for her methodological work reformulating the Lee-Carter mortality model as a state-space model with Bayesian estimation.
Key Contributions / Features
- Pedroza and King (2002) — "Revisiting Demographic Methods." Reformulated Lee-Carter as a state-space model, proved that standard LC forecasts are technically incorrect (they ignore the last-period residual), and showed via Gibbs sampler that a proper Bayesian implementation still fails to forecast well — pointing to the constant age-profile assumption as the core structural problem. See Lee-Carter Model.
Related
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