Overview
Cornell University economist and NBER affiliate. Research focuses on disability insurance, Medicare, and social insurance program design. Lead author of Carey, Miller, and Molitor (2025), which provides the definitive identification of the entry-cost mechanism in DI cyclicality using Medicare administrative data and the Vocational Grid age discontinuity as an instrument.
Key Contributions / Features
- Lead author of Carey, Miller, and Molitor (2025): uses 15.79M Medicare beneficiaries (1993–2017) to show recession-induced DI entrants are healthier (lower spending, lower mortality) than typical recipients; applies MTE framework with age-50/55 grid discontinuity as instrument; establishes health shocks account for only 1.5% of DI cyclicality; entry-cost channel explains 92.8–98.5%; workers 50+ generate two-thirds of recession-induced entry
- Related NBER working paper on racial/ethnic disparities in SSDI entry and health (NB23-04)
Related
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