Nan Li

Overview

Nan Li is a demographer and statistician affiliated with Mountain View Research (Los Altos, California). In the context of this wiki she is relevant for her role in extending the Lee-Carter mortality forecasting framework to all G7 countries, establishing that the LC single-factor structure is a universal empirical regularity across major developed economies.

Key Contributions / Features

• Tuljapurkar, Li, and Boe (2000) — "A Universal Pattern of Mortality Decline in the G7 Countries." Applied the LC SVD decomposition to Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and US (1950–1994), showing >94% of log-rate variance is explained by a single time factor in every country; stochastic median $e_0$ forecasts exceed official central projections by 1.3–8.0 years by 2050. See Lee-Carter Model.

Related

• Shripad Tuljapurkar
• Carl Boe
• Lee-Carter Model
• SSA Mortality Forecasting
• Long-Term Actuarial Balance

Sources

• Tuljapurkar, Li and Boe 2000 — A Universal Pattern of Mortality Decline in the G7 Countries
• Booth 2006 — Demographic Forecasting 1980 to 2005 in Review