Murphy et al 2021 — Mortality in the United States 2020

mortalityCOVID-19life-expectancyAADRrace-ethnicitycause-of-deathNCHSvital-statisticsinfant-mortality

Summary

National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Data Brief No. 427 presents final 2020 U.S. mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System. Life expectancy (LE) fell 1.8 years to 77.0 — the largest single-year drop in over 75 years — and the age-adjusted death rate (AADR) rose 16.8%, the largest increase since national annual data began. COVID-19 became the third leading cause of death (350,831 deaths, 10.4% of all deaths), while suicide fell off the top-10 list for the first time in recent history. Infant mortality reached a record low.

Key Claims

Concepts Introduced or Extended

Entities Mentioned

Quotes

"The decrease in life expectancy for the total population of 1.8 years from 2019 to 2020 is the largest single-year decrease in more than 75 years."

"This single-year increase [in AADR] is the largest since the first year that annual mortality data for the entire United States became available."

"Suicide dropped from the list of 10 leading causes in 2020."

My Take

This is the definitive official record of U.S. mortality in the first COVID-19 year. The racial/ethnic disparity in AADR increases is striking: Hispanic males bore the largest burden (+42.7%) despite the Epidemiological Paradox predicting a health advantage. The fact that all age groups 15+ saw significant rate increases confirms broad-based mortality deterioration beyond COVID-19 direct effects (unintentional injuries, heart disease, homicide also contributed to LE decline). Suicide falling off the top-10 is a methodological note as much as a health finding — COVID-19 mortality volume reshuffled ranks rather than eliminating suicides. The infant mortality record low amid a mortality catastrophe for adults is a genuine finding worth tracking.