Overview
Larry Ozanne is an economist at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) whose research focuses on capital gains taxation and revenue forecasting. He is co-developer (with Preston Miller) of the Miller-Ozanne OLS tax-adjustment equation for capital gains, and co-author of the CBO Technical Paper series on capital gains forecasting methods.
Key Contributions / Features
- Miller-Ozanne tax-adjustment equation (2000): OLS model regressing Δlog(gains/potential GDP) on changes in permanent and transitory capital gains tax rates plus output-gap and S&P 500 growth. Removes the mechanical effect of tax law changes to produce a counterfactual gains series used as the dependent variable for BVAR forecasting.
- Kim-Miller-Ozanne (2004): Co-authored the CBO Technical Paper proposing BVAR-based improvements to capital gains forecasting; the integrated quarterly BVAR with linear interpolation and Kalman filtering reduced 1-year RMSE by 36% relative to the historical mean-reversion benchmark.
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