Overview
Preston J. Miller is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis who has worked on Bayesian forecasting methods and mixed-frequency econometric models. He is also a co-developer (with Larry Ozanne) of the Miller-Ozanne OLS tax-adjustment equation used to remove the mechanical effects of changing capital gains tax rates from realized capital gains series.
Key Contributions / Features
- Miller-Ozanne OLS tax-adjustment equation: Regression of Δlog(gains/potential GDP) on Δ permanent tax rate, Δ transitory tax rate, Δlog(output gap), and Δlog(S&P 500 Q4); constructs a counterfactual gains series as if 1998 tax rates applied throughout 1948–2000. Published in Miller-Ozanne (2000) CBO Technical Paper 2000-5.
- Miller-Chin (1996): Early work on using monthly data to improve quarterly macroeconomic forecasts, at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Kim-Miller-Ozanne (2004): BVAR-based integrated quarterly method with Kalman filtering for capital gains forecasting; 36% RMSE improvement over CBO benchmark at the 1-year horizon.
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