Overview
Frank T. Denton is an economist at McMaster University (Hamilton, Ontario) who studies demographic economics and mortality forecasting. His 2005 paper with Feaver and Spencer investigates alternative stochastic mortality forecasting methods as competitors to the Lee-Carter approach, finding that non-LC methods produce nearly identical central forecasts and that parametric vs. bootstrap approaches give essentially the same prediction intervals.
Key Contributions / Features
- Denton, Feaver, and Spencer (2005) — "Time Series Analysis and Stochastic Forecasting: An Econometric Study of Mortality and Life Expectancy," Journal of Population Economics 18(2): 203–227; AR(2) system model of 38-group Canadian mortality; three stochastic methods (nonparametric bootstrap, partially parametric, fully parametric) give nearly identical 50th percentile forecasts; normality vs. bootstrap makes negligible difference; calls for Bayesian mixture over trend scenarios. See Denton Feaver and Spencer 2005 — Time Series Analysis and Stochastic Forecasting.
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