Overview
Economist at the Division of Economic Research, Social Security Administration. Specializes in immigrant earnings trajectories, microsimulation methods, and Social Security benefit adequacy for the foreign-born.
Key Contributions / Features
- Lead series with Daniel J. Dowhan on immigrant earnings and microsimulation (2002, 2008): established earnings growth (not levels) as the operative sufficient statistic for immigrant retirement projections; documented the entry-earnings-growth-rate inverse relationship.
- Co-author of Duleep and Dowhan (2008) "Adding Immigrants to Microsimulation Models": specified how to modify human capital, past-is-prologue, and donor approaches for the foreign-born; parameterized emigration as exponential decay (y=d+ae−bx); showed 87% of emigration concentrates in the first 10 years.
- Demonstrated that developing-country immigrants retain ~4× lower emigration rates than developed-country immigrants at working ages, substantially reshaping the long-run resident immigrant population.
- MINT projections: foreign-born retirees 10.7%→14.4% by 2020; OA-ineligible elderly foreign-born 4.3%→10.3%; Hispanic AIME −17%, Asian AIME −25% relative to native baseline.
- Co-developer (with Mark Regets) of the IHCI model (Duleep and Regets 1992–2002): established that low skill transferability induces greater human capital investment, predicting an inverse relationship between immigrant entry earnings and earnings growth; synthesized in Duleep and Dowhan (2008) "Research on Immigrant Earnings."
- Earlier work (1986) on income–mortality using longitudinal administrative record data.
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