Jeremy McCauley

disability-insurancemortalitycausal-inferenceinstrumental-variables

Overview

Jeremy McCauley is an economist and co-author of Black, French, McCauley, and Song (2024), which uses random assignment of Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) appellants to Administrative Law Judges (ALJs) to estimate the causal effect of disability insurance allowance on 10-year mortality. The paper documents that the Local Average Treatment Effect (LATE) is +2.8 percentage points for marginal appellants — masking heterogeneity revealed by the Marginal Treatment Effect (MTE) framework, where allowance reduces mortality for the sickest inframarginal recipients and increases it for relatively healthier marginal ones.

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