Overview
Samir Soneji is a demographer at the Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice and the Norris Cotton Cancer Center, Dartmouth College. His research focuses on mortality forecasting, cancer epidemiology, and population health. He is best known for his collaboration with Gary King on formal Bayesian mortality forecasting methods for Social Security solvency.
Key Contributions / Features
- Soneji and King (2012) — "Statistical Security for Social Security." Demography 49(3): 1037–1060. First paper to document and replicate the SSA Office of the Chief Actuary's mortality forecasting process. Proposes a Bayesian alternative incorporating demographic smoothness priors and smoking/obesity covariates. Finds SSA's intermediate-cost solvency projections are systematically too optimistic: negative annual net income arrives 2–3 years earlier, trust fund balance is ~$730 billion lower by 2031. See SSA Mortality Forecasting.
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