Overview
Economist at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Works on labor market dynamics, earnings losses from job displacement, and disability insurance program design. Lead author of the foundational longitudinal study of DI applicant employment trajectories linking 1981–1999 SSA application records to 29 years of W-2 earnings data.
Key Contributions / Features
- Employment and earnings of allowed and rejected DI applicants (von Wachter, Song, and Manchester 2011): Lead author of the AER paper (101(7): 3308–3329) using SSA 831 application records linked to MEF W-2 earnings (1978–2006). Key findings: rejected applicants earn ~10,000/yearmedianvs. 35,000 for matched non-applicants; DDS-allowed earn ~3,000with 17.95,000); rejected applicants show a multi-year gradual pre-application earnings dip while allowed applicants show an acute near-application collapse; foregone earnings of rejected applicants ≈ one-third of total DI liabilities (one-fifth with Medicare). See DI Denied Population and Causal Effects of DI Receipt.
- UI-SSDI interaction null result (Mueller, Rothstein, and von Wachter 2016): Co-author; exploited Great Recession UI duration variation (state-by-week, reaching 99 weeks) to test whether UI exhaustion causes SSDI applications; null result across time-series, panel, and event-study designs; panel estimate rules out elasticities > 0.005. Supplementary CPS analysis: only 28% of SSDI awardees had prior LF attachment, only 4% received UI — SSDI and UI populations are fundamentally distinct.
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