Turner and Rajnes compile and analyze data from 18 surveys (60+ individual iterations, N > 130,000) spanning 1971–2020 to examine whether U.S. workers hold realistic expectations about their future Social Security (SS) retirement benefits. The central finding is a persistent gap: only ~4% of workers never receive SS benefits, yet 20–34% of survey respondents across surveys and years expected not to receive benefits. A separate strand finds that workers who do expect benefits substantially underestimate their level — ages 25–59 expecting only ~60% of scheduled benefits on average. The paper attributes these errors to negativity bias amplified by media coverage of trust-fund insolvency, low SS program literacy, and socioeconomic-status- (SES-) correlated pessimism, and finds that Social Security Administration (SSA) Social Security Statements partially correct expectations but with effects that fade within two years.
"Although nearly all workers will eventually receive Social Security benefits, many survey respondents expect not to receive them."
"Among Statement nonrecipients who reported that they did not expect to receive Social Security benefits, 53 percent cited as their reason that they did not expect Social Security to 'be around long enough.'"
This is a descriptive meta-analysis, not a causal study. Its value is the sweep — 50 years of survey evidence assembled in one place. The finding that pessimism is largely driven by the belief that SS will cease to exist (rather than personal ineligibility) is actionable: it identifies a specific misconception that targeted SSA communication could correct. The SSA Statement literature (Armour 2017, 2020) is the causal anchor — the natural experiment in mailing timing is the strongest evidence that information interventions work. The limitation is that effect sizes are modest and fade quickly, suggesting that durable correction requires repeated contact, not one-time interventions. The demographic heterogeneity is descriptive and possibly confounded: the White-pessimism finding (more pessimistic than minorities despite higher SS literacy) may reflect differential political attitudes toward government programs rather than genuine uncertainty about benefit receipt. Connects directly to Social Security Progressivity (lower-income workers depend most on SS yet are most pessimistic) and Behavioral Retirement Saving (expectations shape savings decisions).