Jim Oeppen

Overview

Jim Oeppen is a demographer associated with the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. He is best known as co-author with James W. Vaupel of the landmark 2002 Science paper documenting a near-linear increase in best-practice (record) female life expectancy at +0.24 years/year since 1840 — directly refuting repeated expert claims of approaching biological longevity limits.

Key Contributions

• Oeppen-Vaupel record (Oeppen and Vaupel 2002) — "Broken Limits to Life Expectancy," Science 296(5570): 1029–1031. Compiled the highest nationally observed female life expectancy in any given year from 1840 to 2000. Found a near-linear +0.24 years/year trend with no sign of deceleration. The record has been held by different nations across periods (Sweden in the 19th century, New Zealand and Norway in the mid-20th century, Japan from the 1960s onward), suggesting a common global trend rather than a national ceiling. Used as an upper-bound scenario in mortality forecasting by Lee (2003) and others; implies US $e_0 \approx 83.3$ by 2030, approximately 3.8 years above SSA's 2002 intermediate projection.

Related

• James W. Vaupel
• Ronald Lee
• Period Mortality
• SSA Mortality Forecasting
• S. Jay Olshansky

Sources

• Oeppen and Vaupel 2002 — Broken Limits to Life Expectancy
• Lee 2003 — Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trends
• Rau et al 2006 — 10 Years After Kannisto Further Evidence for Mortality Decline at Advanced Ages in Developed Countries