Overview
Health economist at Harvard University. Works on the economics of health, medical spending, mortality trends, and healthcare system efficiency. One of the leading empirical researchers on the determinants of longevity and the cost-effectiveness of medical care in the United States.
Key Contributions / Features
- Co-author of Cutler and Meara (2001): decomposed 20th-century US mortality decline into three eras (public health 1900–40, antibiotics 1940–60, cardiovascular treatment 1960–90) using age-group contributions to life expectancy. The three-era shift from infant/child to elderly mortality dominance provides the historical evidence for the bx tilt in Lee-Carter models. Introduced the "medicalization of death" framework for the post-1960 regime.
- Co-author of Chetty et al. (2016) on the income–life expectancy gradient.
- Lead series with Ghosh and Landrum on disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) in the U.S. elderly: Cutler, Ghosh, and Landrum (2014) established compression of morbidity 1992–2005; Chernew et al. (2016) extended to 2008 and decomposed gains by disease category.
- Lead author of Cutler et al. (2011) on rising educational gradients in mortality: using NHANES I and NHIS data with Oaxaca-style hazard decompositions, showed that behavioral risk factors (smoking, obesity, hypertension, cholesterol) explain essentially none of the widening of the Education-Mortality Gradient between 1971–75 and 1987–2000 for men, and at most 8% for women. The widening is driven by growing returns to education conditional on behaviors, not by differential trends in the behaviors themselves. The strong policy implication: behavioral interventions alone will not close SES mortality gaps.
- Author of Cutler (2004) "Are the Benefits of Medicine Worth What We Pay for It?": using the VSL framework, shows that aggregate health improvements from medical innovation substantially exceed cumulative spending growth; improved acute MI care costs ~10,000–30,000 per life-year gained; documents the "first-adopter premium" explaining U.S. cost excess.
- Research on the role of medical care vs. behavior in driving mortality trends — directly relevant to the Chetty et al. finding that health behaviors, not healthcare access, explain most geographic variation in low-income longevity.
- Lead author of Cutler, Meara, and Richards-Shubik (2012): tests and rejects both health-shock and opportunity-cost mechanisms for DI cyclicality using HRS micro data on men 52–64; 1 pp UR → +4.8/1000 application probability; Great Recession is within-normal by within-state standards.
- Lead author of Cutler et al. (2015): shows the entire ~30% GR DI application rise is concentrated in workers with functional limitations; cohort analysis confirms recession accelerates timing without generating new disability or earlier labor market exit.
- Co-author of Stewart, Cutler, and Rosen (2009), NEJM 361(23): 2252–2260: life-table simulation forecasting U.S. life expectancy and QALE for a representative 18-year-old to 2020, jointly modeling rising BMI and falling smoking. Net effect: −0.71 LE years and −0.91 QALE years by 2020; BMI drag (−1.02) overwhelms smoking benefit (+0.31) by ~3:1. Validated against 1990–2004 historical data. See Obesity and Life Expectancy.
- Co-author of Cutler, Deaton, and Lleras-Muney (2006): JEP synthesis arguing that knowledge and technology — not income — are the ultimate determinants of mortality. Organizes the historical evidence into three phases (nutrition, macro public health, medicine/CVD) and shows that the Preston Curve's upward shift over the 20th century reflects technology diffusion, not income growth. Cross-country time-series regressions find income explains only ~10–15% of life expectancy gains; the rest is attributed to exogenous knowledge and public health investment.
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