Overview
Eileen M. Crimmins is a demographer and biodemographer at the Davis School of Gerontology, University of Southern California (USC). She is a leading authority on trends in elderly health, morbidity, and the relationship between mortality decline and population health. Her research uses large national surveys (NHIS, NHANES, HRS) to track trends in disease prevalence, physiological functioning, and disability across the adult life span.
Key Contributions
- Crimmins and Beltrán-Sánchez (2010) — "Mortality and Morbidity Trends: Is There Compression of Morbidity?" Journal of Gerontology: Social Sciences 66B(1): 75–86. Using NHIS data for 1998 and 2006, showed that disease prevalence (heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes) increased across virtually all adult age groups, and mobility functioning deteriorated markedly. Applied the Sullivan method to compute disease-free and mobility-disability-free life expectancy; found expansion — not compression — of morbidity when defined at the disease and innate-functioning level, even as ADL disability measures (used by Cutler et al.) showed compression. Key reconciliation: ADL disability improvement is partly environmental (assistive devices, home modification), not purely biological, while mobility functioning reflects innate physical capacity. Confirmed Gruenberg's (1977) "failure of success": treatment-driven survival of sick people raises disease prevalence. See Compression of Morbidity and Morbidity-Mortality Distinction.
- Crimmins, Reynolds, and Saito (1999) — "Trends in Health and Ability to Work Among the Older Working-Age Population." Journals of Gerontology: Social Sciences 54B(1): S31–S40. Uses NHIS 1982–1993 (N ≈ 227,000, ages 50–69) to ask whether the 1983 SS Amendments' assumption of improving working-age health was correct. Finds: yes, for ages 60–69 — work inability declined ~24% over 11 years (probability of being unable to work at 67 in 1993 equaled the probability at 65 in 1982). No improvement for 50s. Compositional change (rising education) accounts for ~two-thirds of the trend among workers; real biological improvement (declining CVD and arthritis prevalence by ~10%) accounts for the rest. Persistent racial gap: at age 65 with 10 years of education, African American men are ~40% more likely to be unable to work than non-Hispanic White men. See Compression of Morbidity and Morbidity-Mortality Distinction.
- Crimmins, Zhang, and Saito (2016) — "Trends Over 4 Decades in Disability-Free Life Expectancy in the United States." American Journal of Public Health 106(7): 1287–1293. Extends the DFLE time series to 40+ years (1970–2011) using NHIS activity-limitation data and the Sullivan method. At birth, DFLE and total LE grew in parallel — no compression of morbidity at the population level. At age 65, partial compression for women (DFLE grew faster than LE), dynamic equilibrium for men. Men consistently show higher DFLE than women despite shorter total lifespans (the gender disability paradox). Flat or declining DFLE in the 1970s, then growth after 1980. Policy implication: evidence does not support raising the retirement age, since gains in DFLE are concentrated at age 65+, not in working-age years. See Compression of Morbidity and Disability-Free Life Expectancy.
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